Will Iran Make Nuclear Weapons – Is the JCPOA Dead?

JCPA or JCPOA stands for The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In Persian, it’s known as BARJAM or barnāmeye jāme’e eqdāme moshtarak. The Obama Administration called it the Iran nuclear deal or Iran deal, and that is pretty much what it is called today by everyone except international diplomacy experts and those who negotiated the agreement. If it dies, the agreement calls for reverting back to 2005 level sanctions. Is it going to die?

Well, just because the United States under the Trump Administration exited the agreement, it doesn’t make the agreement null and void. Remember there are many other parties to this agreement. The UK, France, Germany, China, Russia, and others as a signer. Thus, theoretically, the agreement is in full force and effect, right? Well, yes and no. You see, since the U.S. redrew from the agreement and implemented economic sanctions, Iran’s leadership has blown past their enrichment limits and purposefully violated other terms.

One could argue that Iran never fully complied with the nuclear agreement from the beginning, and there is now proof that they had lied about their nuclear weapons ambitions. So, perhaps the JCPOA wasn’t worth the paper it was written on, and the Trump Administration got it right and unilaterally took action.

Why Did the U.S. Withdraw from the JCPA or JCPOA?

It wasn’t just one thing or one reason. There were many reasons such as Iran’s meddling in the U.S. Military’s mission in Syria, Iraq, and the funding of proxy terrorist organizations throughout the region. President Trump made a campaign promise to get out of the Iranian Nuclear Deal if elected and to renegotiate a better deal. He still may do that.

Will the Trump Administration honor a deal made by the remaining parties of the agreement? Yes, if it meets his additional terms regarding ballistic missiles, proxy terrorist support, free trade, and commerce movement in the Persian Gulf in addition to better checks and verifications on nuclear weapons-grade uranium enrichment.

What Are the Other Parties to the JCPOA Doing About the Situation? 

Germany and France have invoked a clause in the Iran Nuclear Agreement that calls for dispute resolution. This had slowed down the game a little and has given everyone time to pause and consider the ramification of a potential war. Now that the UK has completed its BREXIT with the EU, the UK is looking to make a favorable trade deal with the U.S. and it’s possible the UK could follow the U.S. and call to end the Iran Nuclear Agreement.

The problem in the meantime is that Iran is continuing to enrich uranium to 5% and some believe they are well on their way to getting enough nuclear material to make a nuclear bomb according to recent reports from The Atlantic. Once they get to 5%, getting to 20% is a lot less work and from there to the 98% needed a hop, skip and a jump.

What Was the Original Intention of the JCPOA – Iran Nuclear Deal?

Originally, one of the Obama Administration’s goals in the deal was to keep Iran from ever getting closer to a year from having enough enriched uranium material to make a bomb says policy analysts at the think tank, FDD. The problem is that since the U.S. withdrew from the agreement, Iran which is suffering greatly under economic sanctions has chosen to use it as an excuse to further violate the terms of the agreement.

What Happens Next?

Iran is now using extortion tactics to persuade France and Germany to intervene and help with economic relief and bring the U.S. back to the table, as indicated by leading foreign policy analysts.

It turns out that this move by Iran may have been a severe miscalculation, along with their attacks on oil assets in the Persian Gulf, shooting down of an American Drone, planning attacks on U.S. Embassies in the Middle East, attacking a couple of U.S. Military Bases, and shooting down a civilian airliner, note researchers at one of the leading foreign policy think tanks. The Trump Administration is in control, economic sanctions are working and Iran is on its last leg.

Some experts on diplomacy and foreign policy suggest that timing is everything and the Trump Administration has perfectly played its cards. Iran appears to be about 5 to 10 months away from getting enough enriched uranium to make a couple of bombs, and they appear to have the technological know-how to build warheads and they’ve demonstrated their ballistic missile technology, but time is running out for the regime. Their main proxy terrorist chief Solemani has been snuffed out by a U.S. drone strike and their ability to pull a last-minute strike like a cornered tiger is going to be a lot harder to pull off now.

Meanwhile, the political wheels in the U.S. are turning as it is an election year, and the Democrats want to try to limit Trump’s war powers against Iran. This is no time to pull-back, it’s time to get tougher. So, the plot thickens to this very critical set of circumstances.